The road to this final has been a tightrope walk for Alonso. Only weeks ago, the Spaniard was reportedly on the verge of dismissal following a dismal run of form that culminated in a Champions League defeat to Manchester City on December 10. However, the performance in that loss—paired with a subsequent five-match winning streak—earned him a reprieve from club president Florentino Pérez. Thursday’s hard-fought victory over Atlético Madrid in the semi-finals provided further momentum, yet the shadow of last year’s 5-2 drubbing by Barcelona in this same fixture looms large. For Alonso, lifting the trophy would mark his first piece of silverware as Madrid manager and offer much-needed validation to a skeptical hierarchy.
Tactically, the final presents a "good problem" that has historically plagued Madrid’s balance: the return of Kylian Mbappé. The French superstar, who leads the team with 29 goals in 24 appearances, has recovered from a knee sprain ahead of schedule. While his goal-scoring record against Barcelona is formidable, his inclusion forces Alonso to recalibrate a frontline featuring Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham—a trio that has often struggled to find cohesive rhythm. Compounding this selection headache is the contrasting form of his wingers. While Rodrygo Goes has surged into life with six goal contributions in five games, Vinícius Júnior is enduring a baffling 16-match goal drought. Alonso now faces the delicate task of deciding whether to bank on Vinícius’s big-game pedigree or stick with the momentum of his revitalized supporting cast.
The historical weight of the Supercopa cannot be ignored. In recent years, the tournament has served as a reliable barometer for the remainder of the Spanish season; Hansi Flick’s victory last year propelled Barcelona to a domestic double, a trend seen in the three seasons prior. For Barcelona, a victory would solidify Flick's dominance over their rivals, while for Madrid, it would signal a shift in power following a period of Catalan superiority. As goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois noted, the memory of losing two finals to Barcelona last year remains a significant motivator for a squad desperate to reclaim their status at the summit of Spanish football.
Ultimately, Sunday’s result will likely dictate the narrative of Real Madrid's season and the longevity of Alonso’s leadership. While the manager publicly downplays the tournament's priority relative to La Liga and the Champions League, the political reality at the Bernabéu suggests otherwise. A victory provides the "breathing room" necessary to pursue greater honors; a defeat may give Florentino Pérez the final excuse needed to seek a new direction. In the high-pressure environment of Madrid, the line between a revitalized era and an abrupt exit has never been thinner.
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